The situation around missing Kim Jong Un is a bit puzzling. The only fact we have is the man’s absence from the spotlight. The rest is second-hand rumors.
Somebody says a heart surgery went awry. But this information is coming from someone’s second cousin twice removed. There was a report that China sent some doctors to help out. I don’t know, I haven’t talked to them and neither have anyone else reporting this news.
They say what may as well be Kim’s personal train has been sitting near the man’s seaside resort and there’s a recent satellite photo of it. Well, it’s a train and it has to be parked somewhere, right? I don’t know about you, but whenever I see a stopped train I don’t immediately assume there is a head of state dying somewhere nearby. Even if its an armored train.
Washington Post claimed food-buying frenzy and low-flying helicopters in Pyongyang. But WP doesn’t have any reporters there and relies on Twitter as its primary source. Russian and Chinese news agencies do have reporters in Pyongyang and they say that things seem to be normal – both at the grocery stores and in the skies.
What I find odd, though, is the reaction from South Korean and US intelligence and government officials. Both say – insist, even – there is nothing extraordinary going on in North Korea. But something clearly is going on, as response from the North Korean officials is equally confounding. They just published a couple of letters supposedly written by Kim Jong Un. If the goal was to put the rumors to rest, doing nothing would’ve been better than this, as it smacks of desperation.
Of course the situation could have been quickly resolved by the Supreme Commander himself, but he’s either unable or unwilling to do so. If he’s unable then at least some of the rumors may be true. If he unwilling – why?
And now Pompeo decided to mention that the US mission in North Korea remains the same (denuclearization) regardless of the leadership. Why say that? Why say anything at all? And he also mentioned the possibility of lifting at least some sanctions to stave off starvation that may be caused by the coronavirus epidemic in North Korea. This is something new.
And all of this comes at a time when Trump absolutely needs a big win somewhere. Anywhere, really. A deal with Kim would be such a win. It would be uuge. I don’t know, but it seems to me that something’s up. Something that the US, South Korea, and at least someone in North Korea are cooking up, either planned or opportunistic in nature. Everyone is acting out of character.
Until very recently North Korea kept launching its missiles, but probably found it hard to compete with the coronavirus for attention. Due to its proximity to China I am sure the epidemic started in North Korea back in January or even earlier. And things likely did not go well. Maybe that’s why China sent a team of doctors there and not because of Kim’s health problems.
Seems to me both Trump and Kim Jong Un may be just desperate enough to strike a deal. The US can lift some sanctions in a very face-saving way by citing hardships brought about by the virus. Kim can frame this as the Americans making the first move and he is reciprocating in kind, as he always said he would. Saving faces all around.
There would be a lot of horsetrading going on, naturally, and this may explain Kim’s absence. Now, something along these lines may still be happening even if the rumors are true and Kim is out of the picture.
If Kim is gone, power transition may get messy and the US would probably need South Korea and its contact channels. This may explain why Seoul is mirroring Washington’s efforts to downplay the rumors. They would need things to stay as quiet as possible for as long as possible.
